Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Oscars 2017: May Predictions

Hello, Bloggers. I've decided that, when I update my predictions, I'm just going to put my predictions in the six major categories all on one page rather than go through each category individually. Also, I put an asterisk next to my predicted winner. Here's my updated predictions:


Best Picture:
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk*
Birth of a Nation
Fences 
La La Land 
Lion
Loving
Manchester By The Sea 
Moonlight 
Passengers 
Silence

Originally I thought that Silence could win Best Picture. But Ang Lee has never won Best Picture before and even as the Academy makes voting changes, the fact that it is mostly white and male is never going to go away. So they might still cling to the whitest, malest film they can find.

Best Director:
Garth Davis, Lion 
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 
Jeff Nichols, Loving 
Nate Parker, Birth of a Nation 
Martin Scorsese, Silence*

We've seen a growing split between Picture and Director recently and Scorsese only has one directing trophy to his name. So they've got some making up to do.

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea 
Joel Edgerton, Loving 
Andrew Garfield, Silence 
Nate Parker, Birth of a Nation 
Denzel Washington, Fences*

Fences
is a passion project that Washington is both directing AND starring in. Even if he doesn't get in Best Director, this could be a way to honor his efforts for bringing the play to the silver screen.

Best Actress:
Emily Blunt, The Girl On The Train
Viola Davis, Fences*
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving 
Emma Stone, La La Land 

This would be Davis' 3rd nomination and given her awards run with How To Get Away With Murder, winning 2 SAGs and a history-making Emmy, the industry seems very itching to honor her for the right film role and this definitely looks to be it. You'll also notice I have Isabelle Huppert on my top 5. I'm getting Emmanuelle Riva/Charlotte Rampling vibes from her (foreign veteran actress due for an Oscar nod). Keep a sharp eye out for her!

Best Supporting Actor:
Armie Hammer, Birth of a Nation 
Oscar Isaac, The Promise 
Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 
Ben Mendelsohn, Una 
Liam Neeson, Silence*

I still think the signs are pointing to Neeson to win it. Supporting Actor is the veteran achievement award, he's playing a kidnapped mentor which could allow some emotional "Oscar" scenes, and it's Scorsese. Although the film has to be well-received.

Best Supporting Actress:
Naomie Harris, Moonlight 
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Margot Robbie, Suicide Squad 
Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 
Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea*

Michelle Williams is in a critical Sundance hit, she's already got a Tony nod under her belt which means she's having a pretty banner year, and this would be her 4th nomination which would likely lead to an overdue factor. I also have Margot Robbie on my predictions because the actors have made "out there" choices in the past (Johnny Depp as Jack Sparrow, Ian McKellen as Gandalf, Alec Guinness as Obi-Wan, etc.). So I can believe they could go crazy and honor this breakout ingenue Hollywood has become taken with.