Monday, January 5, 2015

Oscars 2015: Where We Are So Far

Hello, Bloggers, the awards season has really kicked into high gear now that the three key major guilds: Producers, Editors, and Actors, have announced their respective nominees and the Golden Globes are this coming Sunday. So, I figured I'd try and figure out who is a lock for Best Picture, who is on the bubble, and who we might have to blow our goodbye kisses to. Let's take a look:

Locks:
Birdman- It is nominated at the Producers Guild, ACE, also known as the Editors Guild, and has 4 nominations at the Screen Actors Guild. Plus, it managed to make it on the American Film Institute Top 10 of the year, is the frontrunner to win the Globe for Best Motion Picture- Musical or Comedy, and is nominated at the BFCA, or Critics Choice Awards.

Boyhood- The little indie that could is on a good march for the big prize. It has support from the PGA, ACE, AFI, Screen Actors Guild, and has won almost every Best Film award at the different critics circles, including the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and New York Film Critics Circle, which are both pretty key. So, this film might just be in good hands.

Grand Budapest Hotel- Despite coming out March, Gramd Budapest Hotel is coming off strong as it thankfully recovered a Producers Guild nomination, Editors Guild nomination, Golden Globe nomination for Best Motion Picture- Musical or Comedy, and a BFCA nomination. It didn't get in the AFI Top 10, but with its recognition from the different guilds, it still has a really good shot.

Imitation Game- Like the other three, it has PGA, ACE, and SAG support. Plus, AFI Top 10, BFCA, Globes, and Harvey Weinstein. There is a slight backlash against the film, and it did get hit with a bit of controversy surrounding its accuracy. But any film based on a true story is bound to be hit with stuff like that. So, it's nothing out of the ordinary.

Theory of Everything- It has PGA support, as well as SAG support in the Best Ensemble category despite it not really being an actor's movie. It didn't get ACE support, but it could still sneak in at the Oscars. It even managed to make the shortlist for Best Makeup. Shows how strong the passion is for this movie.

On The Bubble:
American Sniper- It is making a killing in its limited box office run and received PGA and ACE support. It didn't get in the SAGs, but an even bigger blow was getting shut out by the Golden Globes. We'll see how long that sting lasts. It did make the AFI Top 10, but I think it may have to do with them loving Eastwood. Once I see the film, I'll see whether it is just that. Hopefully, I'm wrong.

Foxcatcher- It does have PGA support and is a Golden Globe nominee for Best Motion Picture-Drama. Plus, it did land a few SAG nominations. But, it didn't score with the ACE and it is just a question as to whether it is too dark for the Academy's tastes.

Gone Girl- Didn't get a Globe nod for Best Motion Picture-Drama, but it thankfully has guild support and it had 4 Globe nominations regardless for Best Actress, Director, Screenplay, and Score. So, it does have passion in the right areas.

Into The Woods- It has Globe support as well as the place in the AFI Top 10. Although it also has SAG support, it is only for Meryl Streep and no Ensemble nod, which is shocking given its large ensemble. No PGA nod stings also.

Nightcrawler- It has been having a great showing throughout the different guilds and even managed to crack the AFI Top 10 as well as the Best Picture category in the BFCA. Plus, it had a pretty good run at the box office as well as critical praise. It might just crawl its way to Oscar 'night'.

Selma- While it did score with the critics, the Globes, and even the Independent Spirit Awards, it hasn't received any guild support and Hollywood might have "racial movie" fatigue after 12 Years A Slave winning Best Picture. Could it be this year's Butler? 

Whiplash- There not only a little indie that could that manages to make it in to Best Picture, but an edgy indie that could (i.e., Precious, Winter's Bone). This year's edgy indie might just be Whiplash, which grabbed the Grand Jury Prize-Dramatic at Sundance like Precious and Winter's Bone. The fact it has guild support doesn't hurt along with support from the Independent Spirit Awards.

Who Might Be Out:

Interstellar- No guild love or even Best Picture at the Globes. Will probably pick up tech nods, though. But Nolan might need another day to fight for that elusive Best Director nod.

Unbroken- Mixed reception and no guild support. We'll have to see if it can at least get cinematography. We shall see.

So those are my thoughts on the Oscar race and who is likely in , on the bubble, or potentially in or out of the running for Best Picture. I will continue my Oscar coverage up until February 22nd, when they take place, and I don't know what or when my next post continuing my coverage will be. But I do know for sure I will announce my reactions to the nominees on Nomination Day, which is January 15th. Thanks for reading!