Thursday, July 7, 2016

Oscars 2017: July Predictions

For the first time on my Oscar predictions, I'm going to try and predict almost every category. Every category except the shorts, Documentary and Best Foreign Language Film.


Best Picture:
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 
The Birth Of A Nation 
Fences*
La La Land 
Loving
Manchester By The Sea 
Moonlight 
Silence 
20th Century Women 

Replaced Lion, Collateral Beauty, and Passengers with Arrival, 20th Century Women, and Loving. I feel that director Denis Villeneuve has really been building up his industry cred with nominations for Prisoners (1 for Cinematography) and Sicario (3 for Cinematography, Score, Sound Mixing). So provided the movie delivers, Arrival could really be his ticket to Oscar. Loving I put back on my predictions and 20th Century Women I'm now predicting since it got picked up by A24 Films.

Fences, I think could pull through and win it the more I think about it. After #OscarsSoWhite, they may feel compulsed to award a film about people of color Best Picture and in case Birth OfA Nation is too dark, Loving is too subtle as the reviews are suggesting, and Moonlight is too "young generation," Fences might seem like a viable option.

Best Director:
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight 
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 
Nate Parker, Birth Of A Nation 
Martin Scorsese, Silence*
Denzel Washington, Fences 

Replaced Garth Davis for Lion with Barry Jenkins for Moonlight. I think he could be this year's Lenny Abrahamson: An unknown that gets in for a little movie that could and I think this year's "little engine" could be Moonlight. 

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea 
Joel Edgerton, Loving 
David Oyelowo, A United Kingdom 
Nate Parker, Birth Of A Nation 
Denzel Washington, Fences*

Replaced Michael Keaton and Andrew Garfield with David Oyelowo and Casey Affleck. With Keaton out of my predictions, I think Denzel Washington can be the one to win it. David Oyelowo could be someone to watch out for, though. A United Kingdom is set to open the London Film Festival, a pit stop for awards contenders, later this year. He might also go around town, saying "Hey, you guys forgot to nominate me for Selma." He might also have that going for him.

Best Actress:
Amy Adams, Arrival
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women 
Viola Davis, Fences*
Ruth Negga, Loving 
Emma Stone, La La Land 

Replaced Emily Blunt and Isabelle Huppert with Amy Adams and Annette Bening. Science fiction isn't exactly the Academy’s cup of tea but Amy Adams is a 5-time Oscar nominee. That might allow them to overlook it if the film delivers. Annette Bening is also overdue with 4 nominations. If both get nominated, they could pose a threat to Viola Davis who is still looking like the frontrunner as of now.

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershalal Ali, Moonlight 
Stephen Henderson, Fences 
Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Ben Mendelsohn, Una 
Liam Neeson, Silence*

Replaced Jovan Adepo and Armie Hammer with Mahershalal Ali and Stephen Henderson. I'm predicting Moonlight to do quite well with Ali, who even just got invited to the Academy, getting in. Also, Henderson is playing the role he received a Tony nomination for and he could be this year's Mark Rylance: a primary theater actor who gets some recognition for his work in film.

Best Supporting Actress:
Naomie Harris, Moonlight 
Aja Naomi King, Birth Of A Nation 
Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 
Rachel Weisz, The Light Between Oceans 
Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea*

Replaced Nicole Kidman and Margot Robbie with Aja Naomi King and Rachel Weisz. Weisz has a slew of films set for this year but this one looks like it could be her ticket back to Oscar after winning about 10 years ago. Judging by the trailers, she has some pretty heavy material to work with.

Best Original Screenplay:
American Honey 
The Lobster 
Loving
Manchester By The Sea*
Zootopia 

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Fences*
The Light Between Oceans 
Moonlight
Silence

Best Cinematography:
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk*
Fences
The Jungle Book 
Silence

Best Original Score:
Arrival
Birth Of A Nation 
Finding Dory 
The Light Between Oceans 
Silence*

Best Production Design:
Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them
Miss Peregrine's Home For Peculiar Children
Passengers 
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 
Silence*

Best Film Editing:
Arrival
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk*
Birth Of A Nation 
La La Land 
Silence

Best Costume Design:
Birth Of A Nation 
Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them 
Fences
Love and Friendship
Silence*

Best Visual Effects:
Captain America: Civil War 
Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them 
The Jungle Book*
Passengers 
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 

Best Makeup:
Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them 
Silence*
Suicide Squad 

Best Sound Editing:
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk*
Jason Bourne
Passengers
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 
Silence

Best Sound Mixing:
Jason Bourne
La La Land*
Passengers 
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 
Silence

Best Animated Feature:
Finding Dory 
Kubo And The Two Strings
Moana
The Red Turtle
Zootopia*