Saturday, September 19, 2015

Oscars 2016: September Predictions

Hello, Bloggers, here are my updated Oscar predictions for the month of September. With Venice and Telluride wrapping up and Toronto currently taking place, I figured I'd share my thoughts on what films will get in the top categories as of now. This time, I will delve into who I think will get into the Screenplay categories. Here we go:

Best Picture:
Beasts of No Nation
Brooklyn
Carol
Inside Out
Joy
The Martian
The Revenant
Son of Saul
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

So I have made quite a bit of changes to my lineup. I've replaced The Danish Girl, Suffragette, and Youth with The Martian, Son of Saul, and Spotlight. Black Mass and Spotlight have received pretty positive buzz so far compared to the lukewarm reception The Danish Girl and Suffragette received. In case there is a blockbuster spot, as much as I would love to see it go to Mad Max: Fury Road, I think said spot will go to The Martian because of its more timely release next month and it stars Hollywood golden boy Matt Damon. Lastly, the Holocaust drama Son of Saul has Sony Pictures Classics, who had great success with Foreign Language winner Amour, behind it which could allow lightning to strike twice. Also, like Kate Winslet once said, "You do a film about the Holocaust, you're guaranteed an Oscar!"

Dark Horses: 45 Years, Brooklyn, The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight, Mad Max: Fury Road, Room, Straight Outta Compton, Suffragette, Youth

Best Director:
Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, The Revenant
Thomas McCarthy, Spotlight
Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul

Replaced Tom Hooper and David O. Russell with McCarthy and Nemes. (Seriously, I wouldn't underestimate Son of Saul.)

Dark Horses: Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs, Sarah Gavron, Suffragette, Andrew Haigh, 45 Years, Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl, George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road, David O. Russell, Joy, Ridley Scott, The Martian, Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

Best Actor:
Abraham Attah, Beasts of No Nation
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul

Replaced Bryan Cranston, Johnny Depp, and Eddie Redmayne with Abraham Attah, Matt Damon, and Geza Rohrig. Before people call me crazy for not predicting Eddie Redmayne, plenty of reviews I have read have me wondering whether Alicia Vikander is the real Danish Girl of the title. To me, that doesn't make him much of a slam dunk. The names that I am predicting seem to be more front and center in their respective films. They are their movies.

Dark Horses: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo, Johnny Depp, Black Mass, Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies, Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes, Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Replaced Julianne Moore, Carey Mulligan, and Alicia Vikander with Larson, Ronan, and Rampling. I still believe that Larson can make it in and if anybody will nab the veteran slot, it might be Charlotte Rampling in case Lily Tomlin's buzz dies down and despite her film being the first to send out screeners, Blythe Danner's film peaks too soon given its summer release. We'll see if the Globes will bite. I was going to say Carey Mulligan is a lock, but given the lukewarm reception the film received thus far, I wouldn't go that far just yet.

Dark Horses: Cate Blanchett, Truth, Emily Blunt, Sicario, Blythe Danner, I'll See You In My Dreams, Julianne Moore, Freeheld, Carey Mulligan, Suffragette, Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road, Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Best Supporting Actor:
Benicio Del Toro. Sicario
Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Replaced Robert De Niro and Harvey Keitel with Benicio Del Toro and Joel Edgerton. So far, Benicio Del Toro has gotten positive notices for his work with reviews saying he gives his best work since Traffic. Also, out of all the supporting players in Black Mass, the one that has gotten the most notices is Joel Edgerton. So if Black Mass can maintain its buzz towards nomination day, Edgerton could easily ride its coattails. Also, while I thought Edgerton was the real star of the film, this is where he is likely going in.

Dark Horses: Robert De Niro, Joy, Samuel L. Jackson, The End of the Tour Harvey Keitel, Youth, Seth Rogen, Steve Jobs, Jason Segel, The End Of The Tour

Best Supporting Actress:
Joan Allen, Room
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Replaced Helena Bonham Carter and Jane Fonda with Joan Allen and Alicia Vikander who I dropped down to Supporting. With all the positive reception Room has gotten for its main actors (Brie Larson and Jacob Tremblay), I could picture previous 3-time nominee Joan Allen coattailing them.

Dark Horses: Jessica Chastain, The Martian, Jane Fonda, Youth, Diane Ladd, Joy, Rachel McAdams, Spotlight, Isabella Rossellini, Joy, Rachel Weisz, Youth

Best Original Screenplay:
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Joy
Spotlight
Trainwreck

Pixar movies usually have solid luck in this category, which bodes well for Inside Out and if there is any voting branch that is reliable with recognizing comedy, it is the writers which has me slightly optimistic about Trainwreck. 

Dark Horses: Bridge of Spies, Son of Saul, Youth 


Best Adapted Screenplay:
Beasts of No Nation
Carol
The Revenant
Room
Steve Jobs

Dark Horses: 45 Years, Brooklyn, The Danish Girl, The Martian

So those are my current Oscar predictions. Whether you agree or disagree, please feel free to write your thoughts in the comments section and share your own predictions as well. Thanks for reading!