Monday, January 23, 2017

Final Oscar Nomination Predictions



The big morning is finally upon us. Ladies and gentleman, here are my final predictions for Nomination Morning tomorrow at about 8:18 a.m.. You can watch them on Good Morning America or stream them on Oscar.com, Oscars.org, or on any of their social media platforms.

Best Picture:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell Or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester By The Sea
Moonlight

Best Director:
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Pablo Larrain, Jackie
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

I think Pablo Larrain will surprise given the foreign contingent within the Directors branch (Lenny Abrahamson for Room, Pedro Almodovar for Talk To Her, Michael Haneke for Amour, etc.). Also, he had Neruda and The Club out last year to likely help his cause. 

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Best Actress:
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

This is the toughest one to predict. I think Adams, Portman, and Stone are safe while Streep is pretty safe. But Huppert won the Golden Globe while Emily Blunt scored a SAG and BAFTA nomination and is on the cusp of her first Oscar nomination. Also, Hidden Figures is peaking at the right moment so Taraji P. Henson could surprise. Who knows.

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell Or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges, Manchester By The Sea
Dev Patel, Lion

I still believe Lucas Hedges gets in but he is still a very vulnerable five. They loved Room last year yet they didn't nominate Jacob Tremblay. So they have a weird stigma against nominating young actors. If he doesn't get in, it'll be Golden Globe winner Aaron Taylor-Johnson.

Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea

Same five as the Golden Globe and SAG.

Best Original Screenplay:
Matt Ross, Captain Fantastic
Taylor Sheridan, Hell Or High Water
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou, The Lobster
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Eric Heisserer, Arrival
Theodore Melfi and Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures
Luke Davies, Lion
Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney, Moonlight
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

Best Film Editing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester By The Sea
Moonlight

Best Cinematography:
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

Best Costume Design:
Allied
Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

Best Production Design:
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them
The Handmaiden
La La Land
Silence

Best Original Song:
"Audition" from La La Land
"City Of Stars" from La La Land
"Drive It Like You Stole It" from Sing Street
"How Far I'll Go" from Moana
"Runnin'" from Hidden Figures

Best Original Score:
The BFG
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight

Best Sound Editing:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Mixing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Visual Effects:
Arrival
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo And The Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
A Man Called Ove

Best Animated Feature:
Kubo And The Two Strings
Moana
My Life As A Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Best Documentary Feature:
13th
Cameraperson
Gleason
I Am Not Your Negro
O.J.: Made In America

Best Foreign Language Film:
Land Of Mine (Denmark)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
The Salesman (Iran)
Tanna (Australia)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)

Best Animated Short Film:
Blind Vaysha
Inner Workings
Pearl
Piper
Sous Tes Doigts

Best Documentary Short Film:
Extremis
Joe's Violin
The Mute's House
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

Best Live Action Short Film:
Nocturne In Black
The Rifle, The Jackal, The Wolf And The Boy
Sing (Mandenki)
Timecode
The Way Of Tea