Thursday, January 26, 2017

2017 Screen Actors Guild Predictions

The Screen Actors Guild Awards will be airing on Sunday and I figured I would share my predictions for the film categories. Wh I think will take it as well as who could and should take it. Take a look:

Outstanding Cast In A Motion Picture:

Captain Fantastic
Hidden Figures
Manchester By The Sea

Will Win: Moonlight

Could Win: Hidden Figures

Should Win: Moonlight

Given the momentum that Moonlight has been getting with its Golden Globe win for Best Motion Picture-Drama and its 8 Oscar nominations, I think it'll continue here at the Screen Actors Guild Awards as it should. But don't be surprised if Hidden Figures takes this. It's peaking at the right moment, nearing $100m domestically at the box office, and because SAG is made up of actors from film and television, Hidden Figures could easily benefit from that given how its cast is made up of actors who have appeared in both mediums. It also has a very starry and established cast which could work in its favor.

Best Performance By A Male Actor In A Leading Role:

Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Will Win: Denzel Washington

Could Win: Casey Affleck

Should Win: Viggo Mortensen

I know Casey Affleck has been steamrolling his way through the awards season, winning almost every critics award imaginable as well as the Golden Globe. But let's keep in mind that the critics awards he won....are critics awards. These are industry voters and while critics can aid an awards contender, they don't vote in the industry. Also, Denzel Washington has never won a SAG Award and his film is up for Best Ensemble. Plus, Brie Larson's visible discomfort of Casey Affleck winning the Golden Globe is a possible indication that those within the industry aware of the harassment allegations may avoid voting for him because of that. I think we're in for a Michael Keaton/Eddie Redmayne-type switcheroo. But if Affleck does end up winning this, the Oscar is signed and sealed.

Best Performance By A Female Actor In A Leading Role:

Amy Adams, Arrival
Emily Blunt, The Girl On The Train
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Will Win: Emma Stone

Could/Should Win: Natalie Portman

I think because La La Land missed Best Ensemble and the industry has really responded to it given its 14 Oscar nominations, this is the place to reward the film. Although Natalie Portman's film is very performance-driven and her performance could be too big to ignore.

Best Performance By A Male Actor In A Supporting Role:

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell Or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges, Manchester By The Sea
Dev Patel, Lion

Will Win: Mahershala Ali

Could Win: Anyone except Hugh Grant

Should Win: Lucas Hedges

This is where things get super tricky. Mahershala Ali is slightly hanging onto his frontrunner status thanks to the strength of his performance along with the film itself. But Jeff Bridges could score a Robert Duvall in A Civil Action or Michael Caine in The Cider House Rules-type veteran win in this category. Also, Dev Patel could score a win due to slight category fraud or Lucas Hedges given how much they love Manchester By The Sea. Hugh Grant might have to just enjoy the ceremony, though, due to him being the only one who was left out of the Oscars.

Best Performance By A Female Actor In A Supporting Role:

Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea

Will Win: Viola Davis

Could Win: Nobody

Should Win: Viola Davis

Signed and sealed.