Emily Blunt, Girl On The Train: From the looks of the trailer, Blunt has some meaty material to work with. She's playing an alcoholic in a film based on a best seller, and has a possible "overdue for a nod" narrative. She's also de-glamming a la Halle Berry and Charlize Theron who took home Best Actress trophies partially for pulling that tactic. Will it be too commercial for voters, though, and will Blunt end up being another Jennifer Jason Leigh? Somebody that they nominate eventually.
Viola Davis, Fences: Filming is currently underway, but if it's ready and well-received, Davis could very well win. She's playing a role she won a Tony for, she's holding an IOU after losing for The Help, is well-respected thanks to her SAG, Tony, and Emmy wins, and she's set to have a prolific 2016 as she'll also have Suicide Squad and How To Get Away With Murder.
Ruth Negga, Loving: She's playing one half of the main interracial couple and in this category, there is often a fresh face present.
Michelle Pfeiffer, Beat Up Little Seagull: The film doesn't have a distributor as of now. But if a big one picks it up, I can imagine it being this year's Still Alice since Pfeiffer doesn't have an Oscar yet (tragically, I might add). It is being produced by Killer Films who was also behind Still Alice and Pfeiffer is set for a potential comeback as she'll also have the HBO film Wizard of Lies and the upcoming untitled Darren Aronofsky film coming out.
Emma Stone, La La Land: She's a previous nominee for Birman which won Best Picture doing another film about showbiz by Damien Chazelle who helmed Whiplash. Another bonus is that the film is a musical.
Dark Horses:
Amy Adams, Story Of Your Life/Nocturnal Animals: Will she suffer a vote split and will both films be too genre-y for voters?
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women: Which category will she be placed in?
Jessica Chastain, The Zookeeper's Wife: On paper, it seems like a legitimate contender: Previous nominee doing a Holocaust movie. But so far, it only seems like a contender on paper.
Marion Cotillard, Allied: I did underestimate her before when she got in for Two Days, One Night. Who knows if I'm underestimating her again.
Isabelle Huppert, Things To Come: This year's Charlotte Rampling (foreign actress getting overdue nod), perhaps?
Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers: She has become a perennial choice.
Rooney Mara, Una: Previous 2-time nominee, but will it be too dark for voters?
Rosamund Pike, A United Kingdom: See Annette Bening above and will the film be overshadowed by Loving which also depicts an interracial marriage?
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins: For obvious reasons.
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